12:00 AM CST on Sunday, January 4, 2009
Six months ago, we thought that travel in 2009 would be only for the rich, the famous and the business traveler. Now, we see that the leisure traveler will be able to travel, too.
Every time you go shopping, save your change because you’ll be able to fly to some destinations in 2009 for what seems like nickels and dimes. Great deals will be available. Why? Fewer people are traveling.
Airlines cut seat capacity in 2008 when oil was $149 a barrel. They thought that only corporate and wealthy travelers would be able to afford the resulting higher fares. Their predictions of continued oil increases didn’t pan out, but they did themselves a favor by reducing seats since fewer travelers are flying.
The airlines have cut service to small regional airports, and they may need to adjust capacity further. The Delta-Northwest merger probably will produce a much smaller combined airline than planned.
I believe we’ll see bargain fares for at least the first few months of the year, except during spring break. Don’t expect deals to all destinations, and flexible fliers will save the most. If Costa Rica is No. 50 on your travel list and you see a round-trip fare of $149, it should move up to No. 1.
To avoid paying more than necessary, don’t book too far in advance. United recently had a fare from Dallas to Los Angeles for $258 round-trip for travel through May 8, the date that Southwest’s published schedule ended. The fare rose to $448 when United wasn’t competing with Southwest. After Southwest extended its schedule, United again had $258 fares.
For the next few months, watch fares closely. Many will come and go quickly. Watch for domestic sales from Frontier, AirTran and Southwest. If you’re looking for international fares, price cuts could come from any carrier. We expect to see low fares through May to Mexico, the Caribbean, Central America and Europe. The airlines will want to charge a lot for summer travel, but they may not get it. Fuel surcharges for destinations such as Europe probably will continue to decline.
It will be interesting to see what airlines do about adding fees. Your ticket price will be for a seat only, and some airlines already charge extra for advance seat assignments. If you aren’t an elite frequent flier, you may earn fewer miles if you fly on a discount ticket.
With luggage fees in effect, travelers should take a carry-on when possible.
We’re starting to see excellent prices on air-hotel and air-car packages, and that trend should continue. Hotel prices are down in New York and Las Vegas.
Four- and five-star hotels will have to compete with three-star hotels for business, and rates should improve.
Impressive bargains on cruises are appearing. We’ve also seen more on-board credit offers, another way for vacationers to save money.
Car rental companies can adjust best to the economic downturn, so big discounts are unlikely. Watch for promotional rates and coupons.
Tom Parsons is publisher of BestFares.com.
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